It was clear from the last set of maps that not all sites were contributing to the likelihood. It turns out that unhit sites were being tested for health, and because the health info was only updated in array sites, not shower sites, all the unhit sites were being discarded as unhealthy. Changing the code to look up the site via the array fixed this problem.
Showers that pass:
03-18-07b: Large map, Small map
03-17-07: Large map, Small map
03-05-07a: Large map, Small map
02-27-07: Large map, Small map
Showers that fail:
03-18-07a: Large map, Small map
03-05-07b: Large map, Small map
02-03-07: Large map, Small map